Super Scintillating Selections Top 30 Countdown: #26 Auburn Tigers

A Final Four in 2019 and a two seed in last year's tournament, where will Bruce Pearl take the Auburn Tigers this year? Although they are technically a bubble team today, I see this team being top 4 in the SEC and having anywhere between a 6-9 seed in the tournament. They currently are an 18-8 team with an 8-5 record in the SEC. With five games remaining in the regular season Auburn will look to finish strong to improve their seeding and set them up well come tournament time.

This Auburn team beats the teams they are supposed to, going 16-2 in Quad two,three and four contests but find themselves only 2-6 in Quad one games. That 16-2 record along with their two wins against Quad

one teams will prove to be enough to get them a ticket to the big dance, but the six losses is a red flag to me when picking them to go on a run. Yes, the experience in playing those types of games will certainly help, but that's only half the battle. The other half is proving you can beat these teams.

Here are some reasons why Auburn can make it to their second final four, and what it is that's holding them back:

Why can the Tigers cut down the nets?

• Clamps. 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), 8th in blocks per game, 15th in field goal percentage allowed, 13th in three-point field goal percentage allowed, 41st in steals per game, and 39th in opponents ppg. In just about every defensive category, you will find Auburn in the top 50, and most you will find them in the top 25. Bruce Pearl realizes what he lacks on offense, and a good coach finds ways for his team to still excel around their weaknesses. Good offensive day for the Tigers? Auburn plays good defense. Bad offensive day for the TIgers? Auburn Plays good defense.

• Second Chance Buckets. Auburn is 22nd in the nation in offensive rebounding. Although they are in the bottom half of the nation in field goal percentage at 43%, they get more opportunities to score than most of the country. More chances to score = more chances to make a big play to win the game, more chances to go on a run, more chances to swing the momentum, etc. Don't overlook stats like this.

What is holding them back?

• Ball In Hoop. 343rd in the whole country (there are 363 D1 teams) in three point percentage. Shooting just 31.8 percent from behind the arc and 113rd in the nation in two point percentage. You can get as many offensive rebounds as you want, if you don’t make the shots, you don't give yourself a great chance of winning the game.

• Fouling. Just like in the final four in 2019, fouling has and will lose this team games 🙂. Averaging 19.1 team fouls a game (20 FPG in their last 3 games) is 320th in the country. This will allow their opposing team to get to the line and have a chance to make free throws, and maybe even limit their best players from being in the game because they are in foul trouble.

Auburn has a solid team, led by Wendell Green Jr, Johni Broome, and Jaylin WIlliams. They are great at sharing the ball (14 assists per game), crashing the boards, and locking down on defense. Bruce Pearl will have this team as ready as they can be in March, however, too many of their team stats are in the three-hundreds in D1 Rankings for me to even consider this team making a deep run. Stats don't measure heart though, so we'll just have to see.

My Prediction: Round of 32 exit

Next Game: @ Vanderbilt 2/18